Could the Attack on Pearl Harbor Have Been Avoided?

Pearl Harbor under attack

The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor at 7:55 a.m., December 7, 1941, was one of the most important events in United States history. It prompted the United States government to join World War II in both the Pacific and the European theaters. It also showed the people of the United States that living in an isolationist country did not mean that they were safe from attack. It was a sad lesson to learn and one that came with a high price. Despite the relative success of American involvement in World War II, it has often been speculated that the United States could have avoided the attack on Pearl Harbor and the war with the Japanese that ensued. This is true, for many reasons. However, avoidance would have come with a price of its own.

Looking back, we know that the United States military and government were privy to several clues that an attack from Japan was imminent. Relations between the two countries were crumbling. The Japanese were spreading propaganda about the United States. It seems as if the people of Japan were gearing up for war before even the government of the United States had realized that Japan was capable of it.

According to papers found after the war, belonging to American ambassador to Japan-Joseph Grew, Grew had received intelligence from the Peruvian ambassador to Japan that an attack on Pearl Harbor was being planned. Grew received this intelligence on January 27, 1941, nearly a year before the attack took place. Grew passed this information along, but his information was cursory at best and he seemingly believed it to be unlikely. Later, Grew blamed the attack and the U.S. involvement in World War II on President Roosevelt.

Tensions between the U.S. and Japan had risen over interests in China. Japan had been at war with China and, by the time warnings of hostilities against the U.S. began coming out of Japan, Japan was in alliance with Italy and Germany. The United States had interests in China and did not want Japanese troops in the country. Furthermore, Japan’s alliance with Italy and Germany meant that it was at war with the British Empire. If Japan were successful in China, it would bring Axis powers one step closer to defeating the British. This would not have been good for the U.S. Therefore, despite the U.S. position of non-involvement in the war, they were passively becoming involved by not respecting Japan’s presence in China. Japanese authorities resented this. It should have been obvious to U.S. officials that this would bring about retaliation, but they underestimated their enemy and would continue to do so for the better part of the war.

The United States placed an embargo on oil and iron ore trade with Japan in July of 1941. They also “requested” that Japan remove their troops from China. This was roughly six months after the first official warning of a planned attack on Pearl Harbor had reached government officials. Japan needed U.S. oil to wage their wars. Of course, the embargo exacerbated things. Then Prime Minister of Japan-Prince Konoye-decided to arrange a meeting with President Roosevelt in, of all places, Hawaii, to discuss possible solutions. Roosevelt agreed, but changed the place of meeting to Alaska. However, the meeting kept being put off; ultimately, it never took place. In October, Konoye was replaced as Prime Minister by the less peaceful-minded Tojo Hideki.

During all of this, the U.S. government seems to have taken a position of complacency. They did not believe that the Japanese would wage war with them. Sure, the reason there were many ships, troops and aircraft in Pearl Harbor was because of tensions with the Japanese, but defense issues at the base appear to have been ignored because of this underestimation of the enemy. It is clear that had the government seen the threat of war with Japan for what it was-legitimate-and had listened to warnings coming out of Japan regarding an attack on the harbor, the harbor could have been much better defended. However, could the attack have been avoided altogether?

Had President Roosevelt met with Prince Konoye, as Joseph Grew later suggested that he should have, would the Japanese have aborted their plan to attack Pearl Harbor? They probably would not have, unless the United States agreed to lift the embargo. The United States could not lift the embargo without an agreement from Japan that they would leave China. It is highly unlikely that Japan would have left China. They only wanted that embargo lifted. With it, there was no reason for them to keep peace with the United States. So, the attack on Pearl Harbor probably would not have been avoided this way. If the U.S. military had been more prepared for an attack at Pearl Harbor, the Japanese may have aborted their plan to attack. However, they may well have simply attacked elsewhere. If the United States had listened to warnings coming from Japan, they could have gathered more intelligence and gauged the situation better. Perhaps they would have initiated the war. They had nearly a year to do so. This was no “surprise” attack as was suggested by the American public after the event. The Pearl Harbor attack had been a long time coming. The United States was given ample time to prepare for it or find a way to avoid it.

Source
Thomas, Helen, Pearl Harbor: It might have been avoided, retrieved 6/7/10, prisonplanet.com/071203pearlharboravoided.html
Arima, Yuichi, The Way to Pearl Harbor: US vs. Japan, retrieved 6/7/10, ww1.american.edu/ted/ice/japan-oil.htm
Warner, Denis, Could Pearl Harbor Have Been Averted?, retrieved 6/7/10, nytimes.com/1998/12/08/opinion/08iht-edwarn.t.htm?pagewanted=1
Pearl Harbor Attack, retrieved 6/7/10, u-s-history.com/pages/h1649.html

Shelly Barclay writes on a variety of topics from animal facts to mysteries in history. Her main focus is military and political history. She is a writer for the Boston History Examiner, Military History Examiner and the Boston American Revolution History Examiner. She also writes for a local historical society newsletter. Shelly was a professional cook for 10 years and still has a passion for food. She cooks and writes about cooking nearly every day. She produces a wide variety of content, on top of her niches. Shelly is a stepmother, a former military, current veteran wife, sister of four and aunt of seven (so far).

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