We’ve all seen that Hollywood flick where the good guys find out a rogue power is on the verge of creating a nuclear bomb, and must race to stop them before it’s too late. Exciting but unrealistic stuff, right?
Surely, it’d be pretty obvious if someone was detonating test nukes, they’re not exactly discreet. Well, the Vela Incident of 1979 begs to differ.
An American satellite picked up what was believed to be evidence of an atmospheric nuclear test over the Indian Ocean. The problem? To this day no one knows for sure what actually happened that day, or who was responsible.
There’s been lots of speculation, but little evidence. Let’s take a look.
Over in a Flash
What is now known as the Vela Incident refers to a strange event that occurred in September 1979. It involved the detection of a double flash of light by the Vela satellite system, a network of US Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites that had been designed to detect any nuclear tests which were not in compliance with the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty.
On September 22nd of that year at 00.53 UTC the American Vela Satellite OPS 6911 (also referred to as Vela 10 or Vela 5B, a little confusingly) detected a potential nuclear explosion in the vicinity of the Indian Ocean near the Prince Edward Islands, a remote location in the Southern Hemisphere. The satellite had sensors that could detect gamma rays, X-rays, and neutrons but it was its two solid-state bhang meter sensors that alerted the Americans to what was happening.
These sensors picked up a double-flash pattern, characteristic of an atmospheric nuclear explosion: the first quick, intense flash and a second, less intense but longer flash. The Vela system had been specifically designed to detect such activities, making this detection significant, raising immediate concerns of a clandestine nuclear test.
The United States and its allies were immediately suspicious that some unknown power was violating international agreements to build and test its own home-brewed nuclear bomb. Several countries in the region were known to possess nuclear capabilities at the time and were suspected of engaging in covert nuclear activities.
Despite extensive investigations by the United States and other countries, the exact cause and origin of the Vela Incident remain officially unresolved. The lack of definitive evidence and conclusive findings led to various hypotheses, including the possibility of an accidental release of nuclear energy, a meteoroid impact, or even a deliberate deception involving conventional explosives.
Evidence of a Nuclear Test?
So, the satellite picked up two bright flashes, which could have been evidence of an illegal nuclear test. But was there anything else? After all, even the smallest nuclear explosions tend to be pretty big and make a lot of noise. Surely one would be hard to miss.
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Well, the location of the incident itself helped to raise suspicions. Nuclear tests aren’t easy to hide. But the flash was detected in the vicinity of the Indian Ocean near the Prince Edward Islands, a remote area far from major population centers. This geographical isolation made it an ideal location for a covert nuclear test, as it would reduce the chances of detection and international scrutiny.
Of course, nuclear bombs also typically produce fallout, which the Americans began looking for. From 22-29th October the USAF (United States Air Force) flew 25 sorties over the Indian Ocean to carry out atmospheric testing. To confuse things further, they found no evidence of a detonation.
Studies of wind patterns, however, suggested that fall-out from a nuclear test would have been blown to Southwest Australia. When sheep in Southeast Australia were tested not long after the incident they showed low levels of iodine-131 (a product of nuclear fission).
The fact that the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico detected a strange ionospheric wave (a disturbance in the earth’s upper atmosphere) on the day of the incident, something not seen before, also raised suspicions. Something seemed to be up.
These pieces of evidence weren’t exactly a smoking gun, however. The barely irradiated sheep were in the Southeast, not the Southwest of Australia.
Furthermore, if the fallout had spread that far one would expect it to have reached New Zealand, where no traces of iodine-131 were found. It must also be stated that ionospheric waves can be caused by a lot of things, including solar activity, geomagnetic storms, meteor showers, and even seismic events, not just nuclear explosions.
The Americans weren’t sure what to make of this strange mix of evidence and non-evidence. After the event became public knowledge the DoD continued to refuse to commit, declaring the incident was either a bomb blast, as first thought, or an unusual mix of natural phenomena such as those listed above.
However for still unknown reasons this decision was quickly overruled and by the end of October, the NSC (United States Security Council) had decided that it had “high confidence” that a low-yield nuke had been detonated in the region. This led to intense public debate as to how the NSC could be confident of this source for the blast.
Critics pointed out that no definitive radioactive debris had been found and there was no seismic or hydro-acoustic data to back this up. America’s Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS), designed to detect nuclear missile debris falling into the ocean, had picked up nothing.
In the end, the NSC revised its position, deciding the evidence was inconclusive. The Carter administration agreed. Carter was up for re-election and a big part of his campaign was nuclear nonproliferation. The last thing he needed was countries breaking the agreements he had helped get signed in the first place.
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The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was asked to convene a panel and reexamine all the data that had been gathered by the satellite. This didn’t really clear anything up. The panel’s eventual conclusion was that the Vela Incident probably wasn’t a nuclear detonation, but it could have been.
Suspects
So, who were the suspects if the Vela Incident was indeed a nuclear test? Well, two nations have often been the focus of speculation: South Africa and Israel. At the time of the incident, both countries were known to have nuclear capabilities and were suspected of engaging in covert nuclear weapons programs.
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South Africa was under international pressure and scrutiny due to its apartheid policies and the development of nuclear weapons. It had previously conducted a series of nuclear tests in the 1970s. The Vela Incident occurred during a period of heightened tensions, leading to suspicions that South Africa may have conducted another secret test to further its nuclear ambitions.
Israel, a non-signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, has long been suspected of possessing nuclear weapons. It has maintained a policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear program. The Vela Incident occurred during a time when Israel was allegedly expanding its nuclear capabilities, leading to speculation that it could have been responsible for the detected nuclear explosion.
But, we just don’t know. The Vela Incident remains an enduring enigma, a tantalizing puzzle that has confounded investigators and ignited the imaginations of conspiracy theorists. For every piece of evidence that points to a nuclear test, another seems to suggest it was no such thing.
The search for the truth hasn’t been helped by accusations of political game-playing. At the time of the incident, Carter’s political enemies claimed the OSTP investigation was politically biased.
Carter needed them to find nothing and find nothing they did. However, it must be remembered that Carter’s enemies had their own motives and would have loved nothing more than the Vela Incident to have been a nuclear test.
In the end, the honest answer seems to be we have no idea what the Vela Incident was and it’s likely we never will. If it truly was a rogue nuclear test, then the power behind it got away with it. And that would mean that somewhere, out there, are nukes we know nothing about.
Top Image: Nobody has come up with a definitive explanation for the Vela Incident. Source Photocreo Bednarek / Adobe Stock.
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